That will guarantee almost constant news stories until November as the blue states struggle to uphold abortion rights while red states vie with each other to see which can approve the most draconian anti-abortion legislation.ĭemocracy is the hardest political issue to handicap since so much depends on the final verdict by the voters on the work of the Jan. ![]() The problem with this argument is that once the Supreme Court rules, the action will immediately shift to the states. As a result, the actual Supreme Court decision will be anticlimactic. Wade has already done about all the political damage the issue could. The theory is that the leaked draft of the Supreme Court majority opinion overturning Roe v. Bruen could also roll back many other state laws limiting gun ownership.Īll of this suggests that guns will remain in the sights of the voters in November, no matter what Congress does in the next two weeks.Ībortion is another issue that the Republicans would love to wish away. The decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Moreover, the conservative Supreme Court - which was shaped by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell - is expected in the next few weeks to overturn a New York law strictly regulating the right to carry concealed handguns. Ten - or even 15 - Senate Republican votes will not erase the reality that even this minimal legislation will be opposed by almost all House Republicans and most GOP challengers aiming to defeat Democratic incumbents. But that may be wishful thinking by Republicans who want the political support of the gun lobby with none of the electoral baggage that goes with it. The latest conventional wisdom is that the bipartisan Senate deal on gun legislation takes that issue off the table for the midterms. And it is difficult to believe that the latest breathless accounts of another caravan of 6,000 people heading north to the border will change that political calculus in November.Įven though Joe Biden’s approval rating is slowly dipping below 40 percent and the generic ballot question tends to narrowly favor the Republicans, the EGAD issue cluster may somewhat balance the scales on Election Day. While the virus no longer registers as a major factor in the polls, it is difficult to mask its continuing toll on American life.Įven though the National Republican Congressional Committee has been running an ongoing press-release campaign titled, “ Biden Border Crisis,” immigration ranks as a secondary issue with all groups except Republicans, according to a recent FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos survey. There was a time when I optimistically believed that 2022 would be a victory-over-COVID-19 election. And they spell the letters in EGAD - the economy, guns, abortion and democracy. Just four months until early voting begins in earnest, the issue contours of the election are coming into focus. ![]() But taken as the acronym EGAD, it becomes a handy guide to the 2022 midterm elections. Wodehouse mocking the British aristocracy. Watson in a Sherlock Holmes mystery or P.G. Egad is one of those fusty words that you associate with Dr.
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